September 2024 Market Update

Despite cattle herds being at historically low levels, there remains ample supply to cover current demand. However, with packers challenged to reach profitability, slaughter levels may be reduced to counteract high raw material costs.

Cattle carcass weights continue to be at record levels which has helped to offset the reduced supply. With cattle being kept on feed longer, grading continues to be predominantly choice, premium, and prime. Availability for lower grades such as select remains limited.

• Ground beef and patty pricing remains elevated as lower slaughter levels have reduced availability of lean trim in the marketplace.
• Ribeye pricing has increased as deep chill companies stepped in heavily prior to the Labor Day holiday and will continue to strengthen for the remainder of the year.
• Striploin pricing has decreased significantly and settled back at more reasonable levels.
• Chuck flat pricing will be decreasing significantly in September and remain steady in October due to international Asian export markets showing softness on higher priced U.S. exports with Australia filling in with lower priced product.
• Chuck roll pricing will be increasing as retailers look to feature end cuts for their winter ad features.
• Sliced beef short rib pricing continues to increase due to limited availability of raw material.
• Oxtail prices, which have been steady during the summer, have increased slightly as we enter the colder fall months.

With the ongoing cattle shortage and higher beef prices, we should expect volatility as consumer demand will ultimately shape future pricing. 

Overall, all chicken parts remain in well sold positions due to strong and consistent demand. HPAI bird flu remains an ongoing area of concern for producers, but no new outbreaks have surfaced over the past month.

• Bone-In Thighs – Availability for bone-in thighs continues to be limited as retailers continue to feature poultry heavily.
• Boneless Skinless Thighs – Boneless Skinless Thigh prices have increased with retailers featuring dark meat for their ad features. However, prices are expected to decrease as we enter the colder winter months.
• Leg Meat – Chicken leg meat pricing is finally starting to show softness but remains at elevated levels with processors viewing leg meat as a better value in comparison to thigh meat. Typically, when thigh meat prices increase to a certain level, processors pivot to lower priced leg meat.
• Breast Meat – Breast meat prices have remained unseasonably strong with retailers continuing to feature white meat in their ads.
• Wings – Wing demand remains strong and has been supported by increased demand with the start of the football season.
• Turkey – Turkey prices are stable as there remains adequate supply to support overall demand.

Poultry Outlook – With high beef prices, poultry remains the preeminent protein of choice for value conscious consumers dealing with inflation.

With pork production down in the European Union, the export of American pork to Europe and Korea has increased. Despite these increased export levels, there remains a more than adequate inventory of hogs in the supply chain.

In comparison to higher priced beef, pork continues to be the most stable protein in terms of pricing and supply. With Prop 12 price increases, pork demand in California is significantly down from previous years.

• Butts – Boneless butt prices are steady and continue to show softness despite export bookings to overseas Asian export markets.
• Hams – Ham demand has been robust as we approach the holiday months and is driving profitability for packers in the pork cutout.
• Back Ribs – Rib prices are steady and stable as we exit the peak demand of the summer months.
• Bellies – Belly prices continue to show weakness as bacon features have been lackluster and considerably less than in past years.

Pork Outlook – Similar to poultry, pork presents value to consumers as retailers feature pork more prominently in their ads.

Cold Water Atlantic Lobster Tails

• The Canadian Fall Season is down about 20%.
• Demand is still strong in all sectors of the marketplace; Foodservice, retail, China, and the European markets.
• Prices are rising.

Mahi Mahi

• Prices are stable.

Vanamei White Shrimp

• US demand for Shrimp is still strong.
• Prices are stable, except for some of the larger sized shrimps.