October 2024 Market Update

Over the past month, cattle supplies have been tightening as packers limit slaughter levels to combat negative margins. With packers limiting production at their plants, overall beef prices are on the rise. Despite historically high prices, consumer demand remains strong.

Cattle carcass weights continue to be at record high levels which have helped to offset the reduced supply. With cattle on feed longer, grading continues to be predominantly choice, premium, and prime. Availability for lower grades such as select remains limited.

• Ground beef and patty pricing remains elevated as lower slaughter levels have reduced availability of lean trim in the marketplace.
• Ribeye pricing continues to increase as we approach the holiday months when demand and prices peak.
• Striploin pricing has been increasing as well but could present a more economical holiday roast beef option in comparison to higher priced ribeye.
• Chuck flat pricing will be taking a huge jump in November as the overall chuck complex has strengthened considerably since September. This rise in pricing is primarily due to packers cutting back hours at the plant as well as the strong forward sold position for end cuts such as the chuck.
• Chuck roll pricing will be increasing significantly as end cuts are sold out for the remainder of the year.
• Sliced beef short rib pricing continues to remain at elevated levels due to limited availability of raw material.
• Oxtail prices, which have been steady during the summer, have increased slightly as we enter the colder fall months.

With packers limiting slaughter levels coupled with strong demand we should expect higher beef prices for the remainder of the year.

Overall, chicken parts remain in well sold positions due to strong and consistent demand.  HPAI bird flu remains an ongoing area of concern with the fall migration upon us.   

• Bone-In Thighs – Availability for bone-in thighs continues to be limited as retailers continue to feature poultry heavily.
• Boneless Skinless Thighs – Boneless skinless thigh prices will be softening as we enter the colder winter months when demand typically wanes.
• Leg Meat – Chicken leg meat pricing is showing softness but has remained at elevated levels due to strong export demand.
• Breast Meat – Breast meat prices will decrease significantly over the next month as retailers adjust their winter ad features.
• Wings – Wing demand remains strong and has been supported by strong demand as we are in the middle of the football season.
• Turkey – Turkey prices are stable as there remains adequate supply to support overall demand.

Poultry Outlook – With high beef prices, poultry still presents the best value in comparison to other proteins to consumers dealing with inflation. 

Export demand remains robust for pork, but there remains a more than adequate inventory of hogs in the supply chain. In comparison to higher priced beef, pork continues to be the most stable protein in terms of pricing and supply. 

With Prop 12 price increases, pork demand in California is significantly down from previous years.

• Butts – Boneless butt prices are steady primarily due to export bookings to overseas Asian export markets.
• Hams – Ham demand has been robust as we approach the holiday months and is driving profitability for packers in the pork cutout.
• Back Ribs – Rib prices are steady and stable as we exit the peak demand of the summer months.
• Bellies – Belly prices continue to show weakness as bacon features have been lackluster and considerably less than in past years.

Pork Outlook – Similar to poultry, pork presents value to consumers as retailers feature pork more prominently in their ads.     

Alaskan Snow Crab (Opilio)

• The 2024/2025 Season will run from October 15, 2024, through May 15, 2025.
• This is a much smaller season than compared to the Canadian season. The quota is set at 4.25 million pounds, compared to the Canadian at over 208 million pounds this past season.
• Prices are anticipated to be the same as the Canadian and Norwegian seasons.

 Alaskan Red King Crab

• The 2024/2025 Season will run from October 15, 2024, through January 15, 2025.
• Quota is set at 2.3 million pounds, compared to 2.5 million in the 2023/2024 season.
• Prices are anticipated to be about the same as this year’s Norwegian season.

 Cold Water Atlantic Lobster Tails

• Pricing for Lobster tails (all sizes) are continuing to rise due to poor catches.
• Cooked meat (Claw and Knuckle and Claw and Knuckle Broken) are in very short supply. Prices continue to rise due to limited availability of raw materials.
• Prices are stable, except for some of the larger sized shrimps.