Commodity markets remain highly segmented entering the second half of summer. 

Beef continues to be the most inflationary major protein category due to historically tight cattle supplies, reduced slaughter levels, and elevated cattle prices. Several middle-meat cuts have softened following Independence Day promotions, but overall beef availability remains constrained and long-term fundamentals continue to support elevated pricing. 

Poultry remains the most favorably supplied major protein category, supported by increased broiler production and adequate inventories across most chicken items. Turkey remains the primary exception, with tighter supplies and higher pricing risk heading into the fall holiday season. 

Pork continues to offer a strong value alternative to beef. Seasonal grilling items, including butts and ribs, are beginning to ease following peak summer demand, while hams and bellies remain more volatile. 

Seafood markets remain mixed. Shrimp and scallops continue to offer relatively consistent availability, while salmon, tuna, cod, whitefish, and select crab categories remain exposed to supply constraints, fishing activity, weather, and elevated replacement costs. 

The dairy outlook has become more favorable as USDA has increased milk production forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Greater milk availability should help moderate broad dairy inflation, although individual cheese and butter markets may continue to fluctuate. 

Transportation remains a major cost risk. Truckload capacity has tightened, contract pricing pressure has returned, and diesel prices increased sharply again in July after briefly declining from spring highs. 

Mahi Mahi 

Mahi availability appears more balanced than earlier in the season for select sizes. Taiwan season is completed with the majority of the catch on the smaller size. Portion-controlled products may offer better availability than earlier in the summer, although pricing remains firm, and supply is dependent on origin, size, and individual importer positions. 

Snow Crab 

The Canadian snow crab season is well advanced, with harvest activity continuing against the 2026 quota. Improved landings have helped overall availability, although larger and preferred section sizes remain comparatively firm due to continued foodservice and retail demand. 

White Shrimp 

Shrimp remains one of the more stable and competitively priced seafood categories. Production from Asia and Latin America continues supporting adequate inventories across many sizes and specifications. 

Pricing remains exposed to tariffs, trade actions, disease, exchange rates, and freight costs, but shrimp should continue to offer operators a reliable value option relative to many other seafood proteins. 

Atlantic Salmon 

Atlantic salmon values remain elevated, with limited global supply growth and healthy retail and food service demand continuing to support the market. 

Week-to-week pricing has become more stable, but buyers should expect continued firmness and periodic volatility through the remainder of 2026. 

Lobster 

North American lobster availability continues improving seasonally as additional fisheries contribute volume. 

Weather and regional harvest conditions may create temporary interruptions, but overall supply is expected to remain adequate. Significant price declines may remain limited if demand continues absorbing new production. 

Tuna 

Tuna pricing remains highly dependent on species, origin, fishing region, and product format. 

Fuel costs, weather, fishing restrictions, and raw-material availability continue creating volatility across yellowfin, albacore, skipjack, and other tuna categories. Buyers should monitor individual items closely rather than viewing tuna as a single market. 

Cod and Whitefish 

Cod, haddock, and select whitefish categories remain firm due to reduced quotas, elevated replacement costs, and disciplined global inventories. 

Conditions vary significantly by species and origin, but meaningful price relief has not yet developed across many premium whitefish items. 

Scallops 

Scallop supply remains generally available, with predictable seasonal landings supporting foodservice demand. 

Pricing may fluctuate by size, origin, and specification, but scallops continue to be one of the more consistent premium seafood categories compared with several other wild-caught species. 

 Historic Tightness Continues 

The beef complex remains under significant pressure from historically low cattle inventories, reduced slaughter volumes, and elevated cattle prices. 

USDA has lowered its 2026 and 2027 beef production forecasts while increasing cattle price projections. These conditions continue limiting meaningful price relief and support an elevated long-term beef outlook. 

Regional drought conditions may slow herd expansion in affected cattle-producing areas, although overall drought impacts vary by region. 

Industry Risk Factors 

The industry continues monitoring New World Screwworm containment efforts and cattle movement restrictions. 

Additional detections or expanded restrictions could disrupt Mexican cattle flows, regional cattle movement, and production costs. Drought, feed expenses, labor availability, and processing capacity also remain important market risks. 

Ribeye 

Ribeye demand has moderated following the July 4 holiday, creating some seasonal softness after the early-summer peak. However, historically tight cattle supplies and limited middle-meat production should restrict significant downside and keep pricing elevated heading into the fall. 

Striploin 

Striploin values have declined from recent highs as post-holiday demand normalizes. The market may have reached a short-term seasonal peak, although prices remain elevated compared with historical levels and continue to be supported by restricted beef production. 

Chuck Rolls 

Chuck markets remain firm as consumers and operators shift toward more value-oriented beef cuts amid elevated ribeye, striploin, and tenderloin pricing. 

Strong demand for lower-cost beef options should continue supporting the chuck complex. 

Ground Beef 

Ground beef pricing has eased from certain early-summer peaks, but constrained cattle slaughter and tight lean-beef availability continue limiting meaningful downside. 

Lean trim and finished ground-beef items may move differently depending on blend, origin, and specification. 

Flank and Skirt Steaks 

Demand for flank and skirt steaks remains healthy, particularly within restaurant, grilling, and Hispanic-influenced menu applications. Markets have become somewhat more balanced as seasonal demand moderates, but limited yields continue supporting elevated pricing. 

Balanced Broiler Supply 

Broiler production continues exceeding year-ago levels, supporting balanced supply conditions across most chicken categories. USDA has increased broiler production and cold-storage projections, reinforcing expectations for relatively stable poultry pricing through the remainder of the year. 

Boneless Skinless Thighs 

Dark meat demand remains solid, although increased production has helped stabilize pricing. Markets are expected to remain stable to slightly weaker through the remainder of summer, depending on export demand and retail promotions. 

Breast Meat 

Breast meat markets remain stable to slightly weaker as ample production and balanced inventories limit upward pricing pressure. Spot availability remains generally favorable, although individual fresh and portion-controlled products may vary. 

Wings 

Wing markets have strengthened modestly heading into late summer but remain considerably more balanced than during previous peak pricing cycles. Promotional activity remains moderate, and overall availability is adequate. 

Tenders 

Tender availability continues improving, with competitive pricing available across much of the market. Fresh and frozen inventories remain adequate, making tenders one of the more favorable poultry categories currently available to operators. 

Turkey 

Turkey remains the tightest major poultry category due to slower flock rebuilding and ongoing production limitations. Pricing risk is expected to remain elevated heading into fall and the holiday procurement season. 

Pork continues to offer operators one of the strongest value propositions among major protein categories. Overall production is expected to remain above prior-year levels, although individual cuts continue responding differently to seasonal demand, retail promotions, exports, and cold-storage positions. 

Butts 

Bone-in butt markets have softened following peak grilling demand. 

Improved availability and reduced seasonal pressure should create a more favorable buying environment through late summer. 

Ribs 

Rib markets have entered their typical post-Independence Day adjustment. 

Buyers should expect improved availability and reduced pricing pressure through August, although retail promotions may create short-term fluctuations. 

Bellies and Bacon 

The belly market remains volatile, with pricing varying significantly by weight, specification, and packaging format. Retail bacon demand continues supporting the market, while rebuilding inventories may help limit aggressive increases. Buyers should expect ongoing volatility rather than a consistent downward trend. 

Hams 

Ham values have strengthened as domestic demand improves and buyers begin positioning for future holiday requirements. Market momentum remains positive, although pricing will continue to depend on bone-in versus boneless demand, export activity, and forward buying. 

Loins 

Loin markets remain mixed, with retail promotions and short-term demand shifts continuing to drive market movement. Pricing may vary considerably between bone-in, boneless, center-cut, and value-added specifications. 

Trimmings 

Pork trimming values remain sensitive to demand from sausage, processed meat, and grinding applications. Markets are relatively balanced heading into late summer but may respond quickly to changes in beef trim prices and finished ground-meat demand. 

Dairy 

USDA has increased milk production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 as dairy herd expansion and improved output continue. Higher milk production should help moderate broad dairy inflation and creates a more favorable outlook than earlier in the year. Individual cheese and butter markets may continue fluctuating based on production, inventories, exports, and seasonal demand. 

Produce 

Summer production has improved availability across several produce categories, although conditions remain highly regional. Tomatoes, berries, lettuce, and other leafy greens should be evaluated individually because weather, disease, quality, sizing, and growing-region transitions can create short-term volatility. California production remains active, but buyers should continue monitoring quality and regional availability rather than assuming broad market improvement across all items. 

Cooking Oils 

The U.S. soybean supply outlook remains favorable, supported by increased acreage and strong projected production. Soybean oil remains generally available, although pricing continues to be influenced by biofuel demand, exports, competing vegetable oils, energy markets, and international trade developments. Buyers should expect adequate supply but continued price volatility. 

Plastics and Packaging 

Packaging markets remain volatile, particularly for petroleum-based resins and imported finished goods. Cost conditions vary significantly by material, origin, tariff exposure, energy costs, and freight lane. Polyethylene, polypropylene, PET, corrugated, aluminum, paperboard, foam, and molded fiber should be monitored separately. 

Buyers should continue budgeting for above-average costs in selected packaging categories through the remainder of summer. 

Nitrile Gloves 

Nitrile glove availability remains generally serviceable, but pricing risk has increased. 

Tariffs, petrochemical costs, manufacturing disruptions, and freight expenses continue creating pressure for select manufacturers and importers. Buyers should confirm current quotes, inventories, and lead times rather than assume stable pricing across all channels. 

Freight conditions remain challenging as truckload capacity continues tightening. 

Contract pricing pressure has returned, while spot and contract rates are being supported more by carrier capacity reductions than by a significant increase in freight demand. 

Diesel prices briefly declined into early July but reversed sharply during the month, reinforcing continued transportation-cost volatility. 

Transportation expenses are expected to remain above historical averages through the second half of 2026, with fuel, labor, insurance, equipment, and limited carrier capacity continuing to pressure delivered costs.